Thursday, October 16, 2008

Not Over By A Long Shot

This is one race that cannot be called until the end.

Not Over By A Long Shot (Wizbang) are the reasons why this election remains very much undecided, with a great deal left to be hammered down:

First, in a nutshell. a mathematical certainty of any event involving human behavior cannot possibly exist prior to that event.

Next is the idea that opinion polls are predictive. By definition, they are not, in the same way that charting a stock's past performance and present price is in no way predictive of its future value;

Next, it needs saying again the the history of polls shows instability and unreliability. The elections of 1936, 1948, 1968, 1976, 1988, and 2000 in particular were very different from what the polls predicted just a couple weeks before the election, sometimes even closer than that;

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